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The Department of Defense (DOD) has released its Ballistic Missile Defense Review, conducted from March 2009 through January 2010. Download the 61-page report in PDF.

In assessing the ballistic missile threat around the world, DOD found the threat to be growing. As technology improves, missiles are becoming more accurate and farther-reaching. Ballistic missile systems are also more flexible and mobile. These trends are particularly disturbing as rogue states continue developing long-range weapons and nuclear capability. Last year, Iran test-fired the long-range Sajjil-2 missile, capable of reaching Israel and Southern Europe. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) have a longer range than the Sajjil.

“There is some uncertainty about when and how this type of [ICBM] threat to the U.S. homeland will mature,” states the report, “but there is no uncertainty about the existence of regional threats. They are clear and present. The threat from short-range, medium-range, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs) in regions where the United States deploys forces and maintains security relationships is growing at a particularly rapid pace.”

DOD’s recommended priorities for the U.S. include testing new capabilities before deployment, testing under realistic operational conditions, and adapting as threats shift.

DOD contends that the Ground-based Midcourse Defense presently protects the U.S. against ICBM attacks from Iran and North Korea. To maintain this “advantageous position” as the threat grows, DOD says the U.S. will:

“Maintain readiness and continue to develop existing operational capabilities at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

“Complete the second field of 14 silos at Fort Greely to hedge against the possibility that additional deployments become necessary.

“Deploy new sensors in Europe to improve cueing for missiles launched at the United States by Iran or other potential adversaries in the Middle East.

“Invest in further development of the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) for future land-based deployment as the ICBM threat matures.

“Increase investments in sensors and early-intercept kill systems to help defeat missile defense countermeasures.

“Pursue a number of new GMD system enhancements, develop next generation missile defense capabilities, and advance other hedging strategies including continued development and assessment of a two-stage ground-based interceptor.”

Some experts question the report’s conclusions. For example, the Heritage Foundation’s Baker Spring believes the threat to the homeland could well be more imminent, which leaves the U.S. vulnerable to strategic surprises and risks the lives of millions of Americans. Our solutions and strategies should be more immediate rather than future oriented.

As China continues building its intercontinental ballistic missile program, a threat against U.S. surface fleets, and the country’s modernizing efforts have resulted in an “increasingly sophisticated and proficient naval force,” according to the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence. Download the 51-page report (PDF), “A Chinese Navy with Modern Characteristics.”

An excerpt:

“In response to expanding national interests and revolutionary changes in warfare brought about by long-range precision weaponry, civilian leadership in Beijing began to view the navy as an increasingly critical component of China’s national security structure. To support Beijing’s objectives regarding Taiwan, to deny an adversary access to the region during times of crisis, and to protect China’s vital sea lines of communication, naval power became the key to China’s security concerns. In the late 1990s, Beijing embarked on a program to build a modern navy in a relatively short time.”

China’s improvements fall in three areas: Anti-Surface Warfare, Naval Air Defense, Force Projection.

 
While the Obama administration plays semantics games and underestimates Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities, Pentagon officials say the U.S. is taking Iran’s long-range missile threat seriously.

In August, the National Air and Space Intelligence Center released a report that concluded Iran would have the capability to reach the U.S. by 2015. Pentagon officials testified before the House Armed Services Committee last week that the U.S. will have the capability to shoot down Iran’s long-range missiles. Ground-based missile interceptors will be deployed to the west coast in 2010. (Source)

Under its “defense umbrella,” the U.S. will deploy Aegis interceptor-equipped navy ships to the Mediterranean to help protect Israel, Iran’s prime target.

Lawmakers who oppose Obama’s defense plans contend that Iran’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) could threaten the U.S. and parts of western Europe. The president cut missile defense by $1.4 billion, which reduced ground-based interceptors to be deployed in Alaska and California from 44 to 30. Pentagon official Michele Flournoy said those 30 interceptors will “provide the United States with full protection of the homeland against an Iranian ICBM threat.”

Lieutenant General Patrick O’Reilly of the Missile Defense Agency echoed the sentiment.

The administration purports to have new intelligence showing Iran does not have a long-range missile and will not have one until 2015 at the earliest. When Bush was in office, the low end of the estimate was 2012. What if Obama is wrong?

Republican Rep. Howard McKeon, member of the House Armed Services Committee: “Let me simply say, I’m skeptical. Intelligence is a fickle business.”

Indeed, but Obama believes money and energy should be focused on shorter-range missiles, at the expense of longer-range protection. As we’ve said before, unless the administration knows something specific about Iran’s capabilities that hasn’t been reported in the media, there’s little reason to make assumptions that downplay Iran’s intentions.

 
An article in the Space & Missile Defense Report, which cites a study written by the Heritage Foundation’s James Carafano, points out that while President Barack Obama has spoken out against Iran’s covert development of nuclear weapons, his solution seems to be diplomacy rather than missile defense. From the article:

“[Obama] said that he would ‘take an approach with Iran that employs all of the resources at the United States’ disposal, and that includes diplomacy,’ without mentioning the U.S. plan to build the European Missile Defense system — a radar in the Czech Republic and interceptors in ground silos in Poland…Obama’s comments came less than a week after Iran used a home-made rocket to launch a satellite into orbit that within 30 minutes was streaking over the United States, the same basic technology as is required for an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).”

Why didn’t the president mention Iran’s launch? As the article notes, Obama acknowledges the danger Iran poses to the U.S., the Middle East, and the world. Iran is close to having what it needs to make at least one nuclear weapon, and soon. But Obama wants to “dialogue” with Iran. Will he move forward with plans to build missile defense shields in Central Europe?

Iran’s new missile would be capable of hitting any target if it’s converted to an intercontinental ballistic missile. Obama and his advisors are aware of the facts. Will they do more than talk?