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Top 10 Reasons Not to Trust Russia

August 13th, 2010

Cross-posted at Heritage.org:

The current regime in Russia has a terrible record as a reliable partner, yet President Obama wants the nuclear treaty he negotiated with the Kremlin fast-tracked for Senate approval. That makes no sense. Here are 10 reasons why.

1. A Long History of Arms Control Violations:Russia repeatedly violated the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) all the way to its expiration in December 2009, as clearly stated in 2005 and 2010 State Department compliance reports. Specifically, Russia tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile with Multiple Individually Targeted Re-entry Vehicles (warheads) while START was in force. Such activities, however, were explicitly banned.

2. The West Is Still Their #1 Threat: Russia regards the U.S. and NATO as its principal adversaries and configures its forces for large-scale conventional theater operations with them. The recent discovery of the Russian spy network inside the U.S. and their celebration upon return to Russia, courtesy of President Obama, indicates that Russia is set in a Cold War mentality.

3. Helping Iran and North Korea: According to U.S. intelligence, Russia violated nonproliferation agreements by providing ballistic missile technology to Iran and North Korea, which have continually threatened America and its allies.

4. Still Building a Nuclear Arsenal: Nearly 20 years after the end of the Cold War, Russia still designs, builds, and modernizes nuclear weapons and their delivery systems. Russia’s new military doctrine maintains a low threshold for nuclear first strikes. In fact, Moscow plans to use tactical nuclear weapons in Europe if ever confronted with a conventional threat. In 2009, Russia conducted a military exercise that simulated a nuclear attack on Poland.

5. Not in Compliance on Other Treaties: The U.S. believes Russia to be in non-compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological Weapons Convention. In 2009, the Strategic Posture Commission told Congress: “Russia is no longer in compliance with its PNI [Presidential Nuclear Initiatives] commitments.” Moscow’s tactical nuclear weapons arsenal may be 10 times larger than that of the U.S.

6. No Regard for Georgia Independence: Russia has repeatedly broken its promises to withdraw military forces from Georgia and Moldova. When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, it rewrote the rules of post–World War II European security. It repudiated the Helsinki Pact of 1975, which recognized the security of European borders, and violated the sovereignty of a NATO aspirant and member of the Council of Europe.

7. Responds Offensively to Defensive Measures: In response to U.S. plans for a defensive missile shield in Europe to protect against Iranian missile threats, Moscow has repeatedly threatened to deploy Iskander short-range and nuclear-capable missiles to target U.S. allies in Eastern Europe. Reports show that the Baltic Fleet is armed with nuclear weapons that can be used against Europe.

8. Ties to Terrorist Organizations: Russia cultivates ties with terrorist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah and provides military and diplomatic support for anti-American “rogue states” such as Syria, Iran, and Venezuela. Russia voted with the U.S. at the U.N. Security Council to pass sanctions on Iran—but only after working hard to water them down to practically nothing.

9. Natural Gas as a Political Weapon: The Kremlin uses its neighbors and Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas as a foreign policy tool to pressure states. In 2009, Russia cut off gas supplies to Ukraine and to Europe by extension, causing the International Energy Agency to deem them an unreliable supplier.

10. An Authoritarian Regime: The current model of leadership under President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has become increasingly authoritarian. Despite numerous commitments under international law, the government has tightened controls on political life, civil society, and the media. Disruption of political opposition’s activities, restricting access to state-controlled TV, human right violations (such as the beating of demonstrators who “support” the Russian constitution), murder of journalists and anti-corruption activists, disappearance and torture, abuse of the legal system for monetary and political gain—all illustrate this negative trend.

Tough Talk on Missile Defense

June 18th, 2010

The Obama administration is talking tough on missile defense. Michele Flournoy, under secretary of Defense for Policy, and Ashton Carter, under secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology & Logistics, published a piece in the Wall Street Journal, in which they stress the importance of a strong and effective missile defense program. An excerpt:

“To counter Iran’s ballistic missile program, President Obama announced a phased adaptive approach for European missile defense last September—a move unanimously welcomed by our NATO allies. The first phase begins next year with the deployment of radars and ship-based systems in southern Europe. Romania and Poland have agreed to host land-based defenses for the second and third phases.

“A similar phased adaptive approach is being applied to missile defenses in the Middle East and East Asia. While the details of the deployments and host-country arrangements will differ by region, the common thread is significant improvement in ballistic missile defense capabilities, meant to protect our deployed forces overseas and our allies and partners.”

That’s all well and good, but the Obama administration has downplayed the need for long-range missile defense. Last month, the Defense Intelligence Agency reported that Iran may have the capability to hit the U.S. with an intercontinental ballistic missile, with North Korea’s help, as early as 2015. In 2020, the U.S. will have a Europe-based second shot capability to defend against Iran’s ICBM. Consequently, there will be a five-year protection gap against Iran’s ICBM. Our current plan for homeland defense are interceptors in California and Alaska

“We are also making continued progress in improving our ability to defend the U.S. homeland from ballistic missile attack,” Flournoy and Carter write. “By the fall, the U.S. will have 30 deployed ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California, with eight more missile defense silos near completion.”

Read the full article at the Wall Street Journal.

NPR Calls Iran Sanctions ‘Enfeebled’

June 10th, 2010

The U.S. has been pushing Russia to agree to additional sanctions against Iran for its defiance of the United Nations Security Council’s demands for full disclosure of its nuclear program and suspension of uranium enrichment. Russia finally agreed. The new sanctions include inspecting Iranian ships suspected of carrying nuclear technology or weapons, but we doubt this will be enough.

Today, the U.N. Security Council voted for additional sanctions against the rogue state. From NPR:

“The Obama administration is doing its best to put a good face on a major disappointment: After sixteen months’ effort, they have succeeded in delivering less international support than did the Bush administration for a problem everyone agrees is growing rapidly worse.”

One restriction included in the sanctions is countries are prohibited from selling missiles or missile systems to Iran. To get Russia to agree to the sanctions, however, the council exempted Russia from the restrictions. The former Soviet Union can proceed with its agreement to deliver S-300 missiles to Iran, and Iran’s Bushehr reactor will come on line with Russia’s help.

“All this in addition to canceling NATO missile defense deployments and going silent on the strangulation of freedoms within Russia.”

NPR called the sanctions “enfeebled,” and said the U.S. has basically sold out to “reset” relations with Russia. In addition to a ban on missile defense activities, Iran must submit to cargo inspections, and other countries must seize and dispose of banned items, refrain from providing “critical support services” to ships suspected of carrying banned items, and block proliferation finance.

(Image source: TopNews.in)

NATO on Expanding Missile Defense

June 8th, 2010

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said it is “technically feasible” to expand NATO’s theater missile defense system, which would protect thousands of deployed troops. (Source)

“Even at a time when budgets are tight – especially at a time when budgets are tight – that is the kind of investment that makes sense,” Rasmussen said. Linking up the national systems would cost about $239 million over 10 years.

In February, Defense Secretary Robert Gates spoke at the NATO Strategic Concept Seminar at the Atlantic Council. He said Europe had underfunded defense budgets for NATO, and consequently, undermined joint security. Land invasion is no longer a pressing threat. The danger of missile attacks is more critical and “more likely to come from outside NATO’s traditional borders; and more likely to require new approaches that incorporate far more than just military power.” (Source)

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton also spoke at the seminar about Russia and NATO working together. Russia believes expanding NATO and extending its reach threaten its national security. Relations between NATO and Russia soured after NATO criticized the former Soviet Union for invading Georgia. Despite this, NATO seeks to work with Russia on missile defense.

Israel and Missile Defense

May 5th, 2010

Israel and NATO seek to work together on missile defense. Though not a member of NATO, Israel would collaborate with the organization to address the Iranian threat.

“We have already been provided some information about the Israeli test-bed,” NATO’s Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense Program Office Alan Berry said. “We are happy to discuss things with Israel about our capabilities, and we are looking forward to future discussions in that area.” (Source)

Last year, Iran test-fired the long-range Sajjil-2 missile, capable of reaching Israel and Southern Europe. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) have a longer range than the Sajjil, and Iran may have ICBM capabilities in five years. Israel increased production of its Arrow missile interceptors “significantly.” (Source) Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, “We will need to expand our arsenal of Arrow interceptors” which are capable of intercepting Iranian, Syrian Shihab, and Scud missiles. Israel’s air force also is upgrading existing Arrow interceptors to the new Arrow II missile system.

Around the same time, Israel reported intercepting a ship that left Iran bound for Hezbollah carrying missiles, rockets, anti-tank weapons.

Israel and the U.S. conducted a joint missile defense exercise that simulated a response to an attack by the Islamic Republic, Syria, and Hezbollah. Among the systems tested were the Arrow II, THAAD, Aegis, and PAC-3. The Iron Dome is an anti-rocket shield designed to defend Israel from Hamas and Hezbollah rockets. The U.S. and Israel are working together to develop the Arrow III system to destroy multiple-warhead missiles and decoys.

NATO Seeks Missile Defense Cooperation With Russia

April 20th, 2010

Last December, sources reported that NATO wanted to collaborate with Russia on missile defense, a year after criticizing the former Soviet Union’s invasion of Georgia. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s NATO envoy, said he hoped renewed ties would pave the way for a new Euro-Atlantic security treaty in the joint NATO-Russia Council.

Statement from NATO foreign ministers: “We continue to support increased cooperation between NATO and Russia on missile defense, including maximum transparency and reciprocal confidence-building measures. We reaffirm the alliance’s readiness to explore the potential for linking the United States, NATO and Russian missile defense systems at an appropriate time.”

The Voice of Russia (part of Voice of America) reports that NATO’s Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen seeks a missile defense alliance with Russia that would create “a common security umbrella.” Former president Vladimir Putin wants his country, the U.S., and the U.N. to assess missile threats jointly. It’s no secret that Russia seeks more information about U.S. missile defense plans in Central Europe and may be using NATO’s desire for an alliance (and tougher sanctions against Iran) as a pawn in the game. An excerpt:

“The Kremlin has repeatedly warned the White House against the creation of a missile defense system that could damage the two countries’ strategic balance of power. More clarification is also needed concerning Washington’s plans to deploy airborne sensors and seaborne interceptors in Europe, says State Duma Deputy Andrey Kokoshin. In a recent interview with Russia’s ITAR-TASS news agency, he maintained that both sides are unlikely to agree on the joint missile system in the foreseeable future.”

Secretary Robert Gates on Missile Defense

February 26th, 2010

Robert Gates

U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both spoke at the Atlantic Council this week to discuss factors that should be considered as NATO drafts a new “Strategic Concept,” which defines NATO’s purpose, nature, and security tasks.

Secretary Gates said Europe has underfunded defense budgets for NATO, and consequently, has undermined joint security. Specifically, he mentioned missile defense. Land invasion is no longer a pressing threat. The danger of missile attacks is more critical and “more likely to come from outside NATO’s traditional borders; and more likely to require new approaches that incorporate far more than just military power.” (Source)

On the president’s new missile defense policy: “Last year, the Obama administration announced a new plan for missile defense in Europe – a phased, adaptive approach that will give us real capabilities in a shorter period of time than the previous plan. We consider this a U.S.-funded contribution to NATO missile defense, which is critical to the collective-defense mission to protect our populations, territory, and forces.”

Iran is focusing on short- and medium-range missiles, but its long-range capability also poses a threat, whether the capability reaches fruition next year or five years from now. One of the top funding priorities is missile defense. The U.S. and our allies must prepare for long-range weapons, particularly from countries outside NATO that defy the U.N. Security Council.

In scaling back Bush-era missile defense policy, including reducing interceptors in Alaska and California, the Obama administration has left the U.S. vulnerable to long-range ballistic missiles and jeopardized systems like Ground-based Midcourse Defense. In assessing the missile threat, however, the administration seems to realize the need for more, not less, funding for these programs.

Secretary Gates acknowledged the importance of missile defense in his speech, but funding (or the lack thereof) reflects priority. We hope the administration restores missile defense funding and keeps all our options open. Read Gates’s full remarks.

Secretary Hillary Clinton’s Remarks on Missile Defense and Russia

February 26th, 2010


Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke at the NATO Strategic Concept Seminar on Monday and urged Russia’s cooperation in preventing nuclear proliferation and other transnational threats. (Source)

Clinton said missile defense “will make this continent a safer place. That safety could extend to Russia, if Russia decides to cooperate with us. It is an extraordinary opportunity for us to work together to build our mutual security. Missile defense, we believe, will make this continent a safer place. And that safety could extend to Russia if Russia decides to cooperate with us. It provides an extraordinary opportunity for us to work together to build our mutual security in the 21st century. The spirit of collective defense must also include nontraditional threats. And we believe NATO’s new Strategic Concept must address these.”

Relations between NATO and Russia soured last year after NATO criticized the former Soviet Union for invading Georgia. Clinton told the audience what NATO expects from Russia:

“We have real differences with Russia on several issues. And we intend to use the NATO-Russia Council as a forum for frank discussions about areas where we disagree. We will use it to press Russia to live up to its commitments on Georgia and to reiterate our commitment to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all states. We will use it to challenge the assertion put forward in Russia’s new military doctrine that NATO’s enlargement and its global actions constitute a military danger to Russia. We will also use the Council to advocate on behalf of human rights and individual liberty – these are principles and values that Russia committed to uphold when it accepted the NATO-Russia Founding Act.”

Russia and NATO are cooperating in training counternarcotics officers from Afghanistan and Central Asia to stop drug trafficking, and Clinton said she hopes there will be missile defense cooperation as well.

“[W]e hope to extend that cooperation to other fields, again, most notably in the area of missile defense…NATO and Russia should have a regular exchange of information on posture, doctrine, and planned military exercises, as well as specific measures to permit observation of military exercises and to allow visits to new or significantly improved military installations. We look forward to working closely with all of our Allies, Russia, and our other partners in the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty during the coming months to reverse the erosion of this valuable regime. If we truly believe that our security is indivisible, we must do more to strengthen the sense of strategic reassurance across the Euro-Atlantic area. As we look ahead, our challenge with Russia is to build a relationship where the principles that both sides have agreed to on paper are consistently respected in practice.”

Read Clinton’s full remarks.

NATO Reaches Out to Russia

December 15th, 2009

 
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s Secretary General, will be in Russia today to discuss the former Soviet Union’s support for the war in Afghanistan, missile defense, and other topics.

NATO is trying to re-establish relations with Russia after criticizing the country for invading Georgia. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s NATO envoy, said earlier this month he hopes the renewed ties will pave the way for a new Euro-Atlantic security treaty in the joint NATO-Russia Council.

Andrew Monaghan, an analyst at the NATO Defense College in Rome, is cynical. “It’s very important that Rasmussen goes there and meets people and I am quite sure there will be something that can be brought back. But really, in terms of turning the relationship around, I think it’s unlikely.”

Russia says it supports the war in Afghanistan, but won’t send troops. Some believe Russia’s support is “lukewarm,” similar to its attitude about Iran. Russia has refused to issue tougher sanctions against the rogue state.

“NATO is defending Russia’s national security interests in Afghanistan … There is an understanding in the Kremlin that it is not in our interests to have NATO failing in Afghanistan,” said Tatiana Parkhalina, director of the Center for European Security in Moscow.

If Russia’s able to play hard ball with the U.S. and win, especially without giving up anything in return, there seems to be little incentive for Russia to make nice with NATO.

(Source: Reuters)

NATO and Russia to Collaborate on Missile Defense?

December 8th, 2009

Medvedev

NATO may collaborate with Russia on missile defense, a year after criticizing the former Soviet Union’s invasion of Georgia. Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s NATO envoy, said he hopes the renewed ties will pave the way for a new Euro-Atlantic security treaty in the joint NATO-Russia Council. (Source)

Statement from NATO foreign ministers: “We continue to support increased cooperation between NATO and Russia on missile defense, including maximum transparency and reciprocal confidence-building measures. We reaffirm the alliance’s readiness to explore the potential for linking the United States, NATO and Russian missile defense systems at an appropriate time.” (Source)

In related news, the U.S. and Russia have agreed to extend the deadline to renew the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which was set to expire December 5. (Source)

Under the treaty, signed by Russia and the U.S. in 1991, both countries agreed to reduce nuclear warheads to 6,000 and delivery vehicles to 1,600. Eleven years later, the Moscow Treaty, a follow-up to START, required warhead reductions to between 1,700 and 2,200.

Last month, Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev said he believed his country and the U.S. would reach an agreement by the deadline.