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Last week, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said his country and the U.S. were “close to an agreement” on renewing START and hoped negotiations would be wrapped up soon.

This week, the Associated Press reported that a renewal could be finalized by next month. Russia wants access to our missile defense strategy and blames the U.S. for stalled negotiations. Displeased by our Bush-era plans to deploy missile shields to Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia believed the U.S. was capitulating when President Barack Obama dropped those plans. But Russia’s ire has been rekindled. The Obama administration intends to deploy missiles to Poland capable of intercepting shorter range weapons.

One of Russia’s sticking points to START renewal was linking defensive and offensive weapons. Both sides have agreed to the link.

Under the old treaty, signed by Russia and the U.S. in 1991, both countries agreed to reduce nuclear warheads to 6,000 and delivery vehicles to 1,600. Eleven years later, the Moscow Treaty, a follow-up to START, required warhead reductions to between 1,700 and 2,200. Medvedev and Obama reportedly agreed to reduce deployed warheads to between 1,500 and 1,675.

Yesterday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said his country and the U.S. are “close to an agreement” on renewing the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and that he hopes negotiations will be wrapped up “in the very near future.” (Source)

Under the treaty, signed by Russia and the U.S. in 1991, both countries agreed to reduce nuclear warheads to 6,000 and delivery vehicles to 1,600. Eleven years later, the Moscow Treaty, a follow-up to START, required warhead reductions to between 1,700 and 2,200. According to Reuters, Medvedev and President Barack Obama have stipulated in present negotiations to a reduction of deployed warheads to between 1,500 and 1,675.

Russia has blamed stalled negotiations on U.S. plans to deploy missile shields to Eastern and Central Europe. Obama dropped Bush-era missile defense agreements in Poland and the Czech Republic in favor of what he considers a more pressing concern: Iran’s short- and medium-range missiles. In January, Poland’s defense minister revealed U.S. plans to deploy Patriot missiles to Poland near the Russian border. In response, Russia said it would beef up its Baltic fleet. Last month, Romania agreed to host missile interceptors (Standard Missile 3).

Our intent is to help these countries defend against Iran, but Russia believes otherwise. After Romania announced the agreement, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the U.S. broke its promise to keep the Kremlin abreast of its missile defense developments in the region, and Russian NATO representative Dmitri Rogozin asked, “How can we stay calm when alien military infrastructure, U.S. military infrastructure, has come to the Black Sea area?”

We’re not as hopeful as Dmitry Medvedev when it comes to renewing START. Russia will continue stalling in an attempt to pressure the U.S. to scale back or even cancel plans to deploy missile defense shields to Eastern and Central Europe.

In response to U.S. plans to deploy missile defense shields to Poland and the Czech Republic, Russia threatened to send short-range Iskander missiles to Kaliningrad, near the Polish border. After President Barack Obama took office, Russia rescinded the threat.

It was speculated that Russia changed its mind because the Obama administration seemed to be taking an appeasement approach in exchange for the former Soviet Union’s help with Iran.

That help never panned out. In fact, Russia made a deal to sell S-300 missiles to Iran, and has refused to issue tougher sanctions against the country, even as Iran announced its intend to develop high-grade nuclear fuel and enrich more uranium.

No doubt Russia hoped the Obama administration would put missile deployment to Eastern and Central Europe on hold. Those hopes were dashed. Not only is the U.S. deploying shields to Poland and Romania, it plans to beef up missile defense in the Persian Gulf.

According to Reuters, it looks like the Iskander threat is back in play.

Transdniestria, a region of Moldova, said it’s open to hosting Russian missiles “As far as the Iskander…is concerned,” said leader Igor Smirnov, “we have long said we are ready.”

Moldava’s acting president rejected that claim, however, calling Transdniestria “an artificial creation” with no authority to speak for relations between Moldova and Russia.

But what does Russia say?

Last week, Romania agreed to host missile interceptors (Standard Missile 3) as part of the president’s new missile defense plan. These missiles will be in place to defend against attacks from Iran, but once again, Russia believes their purpose is offensive. (UPI)

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the U.S. broke its promise to keep the Kremlin abreast of its missile defense developments in the region, and NATO representative Dmitri Rogozin asked, “How can we stay calm when alien military infrastructure, U.S. military infrastructure, has come to the Black Sea area?”

How will our missile defense plans in Romania affect negotiations for the START renewal? “It is impossible to talk seriously about a reduction of nuclear capabilities when a nuclear power is working to deploy defensive systems against nuclear warheads possessed by other countries,” Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said.

The missile interceptors will be deployed to Romania by 2015. Obviously, these and other developments will impact START negotiations, giving Russia an excuse to stall. Earlier this month, Poland announced that the U.S. will deploy Patriot missiles to Poland near the Russian border. In response, the former Soviet Union announced it would beef up its Baltic fleet. Signed in November, the deal between the U.S. and Poland also sends about 100 U.S. troops to Poland.

(Source for all quotes: UPI)

Representative Michael Turner, Ranking Member of the House Armed Services Strategic Forces Subcommittee, wrote an op-ed for the Washington Times in which he makes the case for restoring funding for missile defense.

President Barack Obama cut missile defense spending. He dropped plans to deploy missile interceptors and radar to Poland and the Czech Republic, respectively. He reduced interceptors in Alaska. However, Obama is looking to expand missile defense capabilities in the Persian Gulf. Is the administration committed to beefing up defenses? Turner says that depends on the FY 2011 budget.

“The administrations policy cannot be funded if the missile defense budget remains flat,” he writes. “There are simply no more future programs like Airborne Laser, Kinetic Energy Interceptor and Multiple Kill Vehicle to take money from. Unless the Administration decides to further cut the Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system, take resources from critical programs such as testing and targets, or perhaps slow roll the implementation of its new policy, it cannot follow through on its stated commitments. A better solution is to restore top line funding for missile defense.”

In a move that seemed impulsive, it appeared the Obama administration scaled back Bush-era missile defense policy just for the sake of scaling back. For example, reducing interceptors in Alaska and California has left the U.S. vulnerable to long-range ballistic missiles and jeopardized the GMD system. Turner opposed these cuts and notes that the Pentagon reached similar conclusions about GMD a short time later.

“For the foreseeable future, GMD is the sole missile defense capability to protect the U.S. homeland from a rogue missile attack. So while the administrations most recent changes are welcome, they must be followed by continued support and funding in the budget.”

In the area of European and theater missile defense, the administration is only now realizing the need for more, not less, funding for these programs. For example, the Obama administration dropped previous plans in Central Europe to focus on increasing “cost-effective” sea- and land-based missile interceptors, but things aren’t as simple as they seemed.

“[A]s details have emerged,” Turner writes, “officials now acknowledge it will cost more, necessitate additional missile defense-capable ships, and require significant investments to develop new technical concepts. Full coverage of Europe and further protection of the United States comes later than previously planned and depends not only on new technologies but also on new host nation agreements. Securing some of these agreements may prove difficult as Russian officials are now grumbling about key aspects of the new approach such as the longer-range Standard Missile (SM)-3 Block II interceptor.”

The bottom line is that any one of the 28 countries that have ballistic missiles could hit the U.S., intentionally or not, and our missile defense program must be fully funded and flexible enough to deal with these threats. This week’s budget debates will reveal how committed Obama is to protecting the U.S.

In October, sources reported that Poland was in the running to receive missile interceptors under President Barack Obama’s new missile defense plan. Last week, Poland’s defense minister announced that the U.S. plans to deploy Patriot missiles to Poland near the Russian border. In response, Russia intends to beef up its Baltic fleet. (Source)

Poland will install a base with several launch pads and manned by U.S. troops. Responding to Russia’s plans to shore up its Baltic fleet, a high-ranking source in the Polish Foreign Ministry downplayed the threat. “Let’s stay calm. Such strengthening, even if it becomes true, is no direct threat to Poland. The Russians have known about the Patriots for at least two years. So there is no reason to react to unofficial comments.”

Signed in November, the deal between the U.S. and Poland sends about 100 U.S. troops to Poland. Although the deal reflects both countries’ aim to protect the region from missile attacks, the plan is seen as offensive in nature from Russia’s perspective, rather than defensive.

Last year, President Barack Obama dropped Bush-era plans to deploy missile defense shields to Poland and the Czech Republic, the goal of which was to protect the region from Iranian attacks. Russia opposed the shields and threatened to install missiles near Poland’s border. Obama said he reneged on the agreements to focus on systems that would defend against Iran’s shorter-range missiles rather than long-range.

“In pulling the plug on the Bush missile-defense plan in Eastern Europe last month,” the Heritage Foundation’s Peter Brookes wrote in the New York Post last year, “the White House came up with a new architecture based on a new evaluation of existing intelligence on the Iranian ballistic-missile threat…The Pentagon now insists Iran is moving faster on its short- and medium-range ballistic-missile programs than on its long-range ICBM effort, against which the Czech and Polish sites were aimed. (Of course, many experts think progress in one missile program supports another.)”

The U.S. and Russia recently agreed to honor the spirit of the expired Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), while they continue to negotiate a replacement treaty. Under the treaty, signed by Russia and the U.S. in 1991, both countries agreed to reduce nuclear warheads to roughly 6,000 and delivery vehicles to 1,600. Eleven years later, the Moscow Treaty, a follow-up to START, required warhead reductions to between 1,700 and 2,200.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s prime minister, said the two countries are still trying to replace START and blames America’s plans to continue developing a comprehensive missile defense system for the delay. (Source)

“If we don’t develop a missile defense system, a danger arises for us that with an umbrella protecting our partners from offensive weapons, they will feel completely safe,” he said. “The balance will be disrupted and then they will do whatever they want, and aggressiveness will immediately arise both in real politics and economics.”

Putin adds that to counter our missile shield Russia would make new offensive weapons. As a result, he is demanding that the U.S. provide Russia detailed data on its missile defense plans and capabilities. Logic dictates that Putin wants Russia to receive this information in order to permit it to modernize its offensive nuclear force in ways to defeat the missile defense system.

Will Barack Obama allow Russia to make START’s replacement contingent on whether the U.S. changes its missile defense policy? Obama already dropped plans to deploy missile defense shields in Poland and the Czech Republic, although he claimed Iran’s missile capabilities were the reason, not Russia’s negative reaction. President Obama’s explanation is not convincing and suggests that he is bowing to Prime Minister Putin’s demands that the U.S. terminate its missile defense program in order to get the START follow-on treaty.

 
Yesterday, Iran test-launched its longest-range, solid fuel missile, capable of hitting Israel and parts of Europe, a day after the House of Representatives voted for sanctions against the rogue state.

Iran’s Sajjil-2 is the kind of weapon missile shields in Poland and the Czech Republic would have defended against. President Barack Obama dropped the Bush-era missile shield plans in Central Europe for one that deals with shorter-range missiles. The administration’s new missile defense policy doesn’t jibe with the Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) goals. Stopping Iran’s long-range missiles will be the focus of the MDA’s simulated attack next month.

The Telegraph analyzes why Iran test-launched the Sajjil-2. Reporter Richard Spencer writes:

“[T]he most important response to Iran’s noise in recent weeks has been its mirror image: Israel’s silence…Since making his keynote speech to the Muslim world a week before the Iranian elections, President Barack Obama has urged negotiations, more diplomacy, and friendship with the Iranian people. That puts Mr Ahmadinejad in a dilemma. For the 30 years of the Republic, the US has been the enemy-in-chief, the Great Satan. Yet the more Mr Obama plays nice, the more that propaganda card fails to fulfil its purpose of uniting the Iranian people in a frenzy of support for the regime.”

Since Obama is going the diplomacy route, Iran needs an excuse to forge ahead with its defiant testing and nuclear development. Israel, which may pre-emptively strike Iran’s nuclear sites, is the “replacement bogeyman.”

“The Israelis have always said that military action is a possibility, but if Mr Ahmadinejad calls their bluff, have they got what it takes?”

The world may find out much sooner rather than later. Major General Amos Yadlin, Israel’s top intelligence chief, said Iran is close to developing a nuclear bomb, because it has enriched enough uranium.

In reaction to Iran’s missile test, White House spokesman Mike Hammer said, “Such actions will increase the seriousness and resolve of the international community to hold Iran accountable for its continued defiance of its international obligations on its nuclear program.” (Source)

Brian T. Kennedy, president of the Claremont Institute and member of the Independent Working Group on Missile Defense, wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal about missile defense in Japan.

Kennedy cites what he sees as Japan’s lack of concern about strong missile defense. He quotes politician Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi, who said missile defense was “almost totally useless…Only one or two out of 100 are ever effective.”

“Unfortunately,” writes Kennedy, “both the new Japanese and the U.S. administrations appear to share an ideological predisposition against missile defense.”

Kennedy briefly summarizes President Barack Obama’s views on missile defense. The administration has cut funding to missile defense and dropped plans to deploy missile shields to Poland and the Czech Republic. Obama envisions a world of no nuclear weapons, whereas our enemies are more realistic. Kennedy notes that Japan sits between China and the U.S., and China intends to continue building its ballistic missile program. Does it make sense for Japan to move in the opposite direction?

“Today China possesses an arsenal of medium-, intermediate- and intercontinental ballistic missiles that could inflict destruction on the Japanese homeland,” Kennedy writes. “In addition, China possesses nuclear-tipped cruise missiles and is developing advanced stealth bombers to deliver them. Next year the Pentagon expects that Beijing’s JIN-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine fleet to be operational. The missiles on these submarines could strike at Japan from a significant distance anywhere in the international waters of East Asia. Beijing also seeks space-based capabilities.”

At the present rate, China may one day overpower the entire continent, including Russia. Will the U.S. be able to protect Japan, considering that our president is lukewarm on missile defense? While both the U.S. and Japan cut spending, countries like China, North Korea, and Iran are putting resources into defense technology.

“[T]he Japanese must continue to build robust defenses. Otherwise it will not be possible to build a strategic relationship between the two over the longer term in which Japan is not merely the junior partner but a supplicant to Beijing.”

Read the full article here.

(Image source)

 
Last year, Russia threatened to deploy Iskander missiles near Poland in response to our country’s plans to deploy missile defense shields to the region. The purpose of those plans was to protect Poland and the Czech Republic from missile attacks from North Korea. Russia claimed the shields would compromise its national security.

In September President Barack Obama dropped those plans.

Yesterday, Russia participated in “war games,” simulated attacks on Poland. (Source) Russia fired nuclear missiles, while troops landed on “Poland’s” coast. Held in September, the purported defense simulation looked offensive in nature to witnesses.

“The Russian air force practised using weapons from its nuclear arsenal, while in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, which neighbours Poland, Red Army forces stormed a ‘Polish’ beach and attacked a gas pipeline.”

During the exercise, Russian troops also simulated suppressing an uprising of minorities in Belarus. In light of Poland’s and the Czech Republic’s concerns that Russia is dictating their foreign policy, with the Obama administration’s apparent blessing, the simulation is even more ominous. What does it portend for Central Europe?

The Telegraph quotes a Polish man calling himself Ted, who said “Russia has laid bare its real intentions with respect to Poland. Every Pole most now get of the off the fence and be counted as a patriot or a traitor.”

Strong words. No doubt Poland thought it had negotiated some sort of protection with the U.S. when the country agreed to host missile shields. Now, a fearless and bold Russia is playing war games simulating “defensive” measures against Poland.

We won’t hold our breath waiting for Barack Obama to respond in a way that would displease Russia.