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The Department of Defense (DOD) has released its Ballistic Missile Defense Review, conducted from March 2009 through January 2010. Download the 61-page report in PDF.

In assessing the ballistic missile threat around the world, DOD found the threat to be growing. As technology improves, missiles are becoming more accurate and farther-reaching. Ballistic missile systems are also more flexible and mobile. These trends are particularly disturbing as rogue states continue developing long-range weapons and nuclear capability. Last year, Iran test-fired the long-range Sajjil-2 missile, capable of reaching Israel and Southern Europe. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) have a longer range than the Sajjil.

“There is some uncertainty about when and how this type of [ICBM] threat to the U.S. homeland will mature,” states the report, “but there is no uncertainty about the existence of regional threats. They are clear and present. The threat from short-range, medium-range, and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs, MRBMs, and IRBMs) in regions where the United States deploys forces and maintains security relationships is growing at a particularly rapid pace.”

DOD’s recommended priorities for the U.S. include testing new capabilities before deployment, testing under realistic operational conditions, and adapting as threats shift.

DOD contends that the Ground-based Midcourse Defense presently protects the U.S. against ICBM attacks from Iran and North Korea. To maintain this “advantageous position” as the threat grows, DOD says the U.S. will:

“Maintain readiness and continue to develop existing operational capabilities at Fort Greely, Alaska, and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

“Complete the second field of 14 silos at Fort Greely to hedge against the possibility that additional deployments become necessary.

“Deploy new sensors in Europe to improve cueing for missiles launched at the United States by Iran or other potential adversaries in the Middle East.

“Invest in further development of the Standard Missile 3 (SM-3) for future land-based deployment as the ICBM threat matures.

“Increase investments in sensors and early-intercept kill systems to help defeat missile defense countermeasures.

“Pursue a number of new GMD system enhancements, develop next generation missile defense capabilities, and advance other hedging strategies including continued development and assessment of a two-stage ground-based interceptor.”

Some experts question the report’s conclusions. For example, the Heritage Foundation’s Baker Spring believes the threat to the homeland could well be more imminent, which leaves the U.S. vulnerable to strategic surprises and risks the lives of millions of Americans. Our solutions and strategies should be more immediate rather than future oriented.

 
Bill Sweetman, editor of Aviation Week, published an article on missile defense changes under the current administration.

“First was the shift in emphasis from mid-course defeat to ‘early intercept’ and from heavy ground-based interceptors (GBIs) to sea-based and land-based versions of the U.S. Navy/Raytheon SM-3,” he writes. “Nobody was surprised when this was followed in September by the scrapping of plans to install Boeing’s GBIs in Poland and announcement of a phased adaptive approach (PAA) based on SM-3.”

Sweetman says rapid changes in our approach has NATO allies uncertain whether the U.S. is “sensitive” to their concerns. Changes have also caused confusion over the nationality of the commander on the scene during an interception.

“The [phased adaptive approach] PAA is in four phases, determined by a new assessment of the threat (principally from Iran) that downplays the imminence of long-range missile development. Phase 1 in 2011 will derive from the current sea-based SM-3 Block 1A, with “engage-on-remote” guidance from TPY-2 radar. Land-based SM-3 Block 1B missiles (with a new kill vehicle) will be added in Phase 2 in 2015 to expand the defended area, along with new sensors, possibly airborne infrared devices. The big-booster Block IIA SM-3 arrives in Phase 3 in 2018, followed two years later by the Block IIB, a further development—possibly spawned from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s classified budget—which has some capability against intercontinental missiles.

“One question is how these phases mesh with European NATO plans. NATO is following a three-track approach to missile defense: continued assessment of the U.S. PAA, exploration of cooperation with Russia and NATO’s Active Layered Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (ALTBMD) program, which is aimed at protecting deployed forces from weapons up to 3,000 km. (1,865 mi.) in range.”

Read the full article here.

Facing North Korean missile threats, Japan’s navy is incorporating Aegis capabilities as part of its defense. Although it’s imperative that Japan strengthens its missile defense, the country’s new government leaders didn’t sound too concerned last month.

“Missile defense is almost totally useless,” said politician Tsuyoshi Yamaguchi. “Only one or two out of 100 are ever effective.” (Source)

Fortunately, Japan’s military doesn’t see it that way. Its navy successfully shot down a missile yesterday off Hawaii. A destroyer detected, tracked, and shot down the medium-range missile while in flight with an SM-3 interceptor rocket. (MDA – PDF)

The missile test, called the Japan Flight Test Mission 3 (JFTM-3), is part of an Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense intercept flight test, and it’s the third time a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ship successfully shot down a ballistic missile target.

“The JFTM-3 test event verified the newest engagement capability of the Japan Aegis BMD configuration of the recently upgraded Japanese destroyer, JS MYOKO (DDG-175),” according to the press release. “At approximately 6:00pm (HST), 1:00 pm Tokyo time on Oct 28, a separating, medium-range ballistic missile target was launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. JS MYOKO crew members detected and tracked the target. The Aegis Weapon System then developed a fire control solution and, at approximately 6:04pm (HST), 1:04 pm Tokyo time a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IA interceptor missile was launched.”

Equipped with the Aegis radar system, the destroyer will take on addition SM-3 receptors before returning to Japan. The Obama administration said the U.S. will use SM-3 interceptors and Aegis radar as part of the new missile shield plan.

(Image source: Wikimedia Commons)

 
Last week, Vice President Joe Biden visited Poland and the Czech Republic, the first such visit to the region by a high-level official since the President Barack Obama dropped plans to deploy missile defense shields to those countries. The Heritage Foundation’s Peter Brookes commented on the new missile defense shield plan proposed by the administration.

“In pulling the plug on the Bush missile-defense plan in Eastern Europe last month,” Brookes writes in the New York Post, “the White House came up with a new architecture based on a new evaluation of existing intelligence on the Iranian ballistic-missile threat…The Pentagon now insists Iran is moving faster on its short- and medium-range ballistic-missile programs than on its long-range ICBM effort, against which the Czech and Polish sites were aimed. (Of course, many experts think progress in one missile program supports another.)”

The new plan may protect Europe, but what about the Iranian threat to the U.S. and Israel? Land-based SM-3 missiles, designed to protect us and our ally, are in development. The target date for completion is 2020, but Iran could have an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2015.

“[T]he Obama administration thinks that if the Iranian ICBM comes online before the land-based SM-3s are developed and in place, the West Coast, Bush-era missile-defense sites give us some breathing room…Not really.”

Brookes notes that the “West Coast” system was created to protect us from North Korea, not Iran. Sites that would protect us from Iran (in Alaska and California) may not be adequate, especially since the administration reduced interceptors at those sites.

“That means there’s a gap in our defenses against an Iranian ICBM strike until the land-based SM-3s are operational, which, by the way, will almost certainly face funding and engineering-development challenges.”

Other problems with the new plan are cost, efficiency, and concerns that Russia will once again “negotiate” with the U.S. to curb development of another weapon.

“It’s…a good time to remind ourselves that the purpose of defense is to be technologically ahead of the threat, not behind it — which is where we’ll be if we’re not careful,” Brookes writes.

Read the full article at the New York Post.

 
Reuters reports that Poland may be in the running to receive missile interceptors under President Barack Obama’s new missile defense plan.

Poland and the Czech Republic were surprised (to put it mildly) when the president dropped plans to deploy missile interceptors and radar to the region. He purportedly intends to focus on systems that will defend against Iran’s shorter-range missiles rather than long-range.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow told reporters at a briefing to Polish officials that the U.S. will deploy sea-based and SM-3 interceptors to Poland that would target short-range missiles.

Vershbow said the new plan will be “more flexible” than President George Bush’s plan and will allay Russia’s concerns about long-range missile interceptors.

No doubt Poland and the Czech Republic feel betrayed by the U.S. and resentful toward Russia’s dominance. Poland tried to assert itself, and the U.S. reneged. But Poland may get something even better. Polish Undersecretary of State for Defence Stanislaw Komorowski said his country would bring a U.S. battery of Patriot missiles.

Agreed to in August 2008, the battery would be based permanently in Poland in 2012. We suspect Russia will object to this agreement as well.

 
U.S. defense contractor Boeing has developed a mobile Ground-Based Interceptor (GBI), which would provide more flexiblity in planning and implementating missile defense shields in Europe. By now it’s well-known that President Barack Obama is hesitant to go through with plans to build missile defense shields in Poland and the Czech Republic. Perhaps he’d be more amenable to a temporary and mobile system like the GBI. (Source)

Although the shields would protect the region from Iranian attacks, Russia claims they would be a threat to its national defense. Neither country’s parliament has ratified the agreements.

Last week we mentioned that Raytheon was developing a land-based SM-3 missile for Israel to use in the event of an attack from Iran. Part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, the SM-3 is a ship-based anti-ballistic missile. An SM-3 successfully hit its target in space last week. Perhaps Boeing’s GBI could be used for Israel’s defense as well.

 
U.S. defense contractor Raytheon announced that it’s creating a land-based version of the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) for Israel, a system that would help our ally defend against Iran. (Source)

Part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, the SM-3 is a ship-based anti-ballistic missile. Last week an SM-3 successfully hit its target in space.

Discussed at the recent missile defense conference in Huntsville, Alabama, the land-based version of the SM-3 could be in operation by 2013. Raytheon’s Michael Booen told Reuters, “If the program goes through to production and is deployed globally with international allies, the potential value … will be more than $1 billion.”

Reuters reports that the cost of developing the SM-3 for Israel would be “very low.” Additionally, the Pentagon may use SM-3 systems as alternatives to missile shields in Poland and the Czech Republic. In fact, the Pentagon would be wise to develop the systems with these countries in mind. At this point, the fate of shields in the region are in doubt. Missile defense expert Riki Ellison said Russia may be more favorable to SM-3 systems than missile defense shields.

>> Defense contractors Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing are vying for a missile defense deal that could bring in $200 million a year.

Reuters reports that all three contractors want the chance to operate and sustain the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system (GMD). John Holly, a Lockheed senior executive, said his company has “the right skills and the capability.”

Boeing’s GMD director of operations and sustainment said his company “is the lowest risk option for the work because of this experience and success on the program.”

>> Russia is gearing up for a new kind of space race with the U.S. A commander in the Russian air force said his country will develop a defense system that will counter the “threat” of our space-based missile defense capabilities. We may have the ability to hit any Russian target from space by 2030, and Russia’s response is to build a competing rocket.

A Russian general said, “The development of air and space offensive weapons by foreign states demonstrates that by 2030 radical changes will take place in the exploration of air and space as an integral sphere of armed struggle.”

With George Bush out of office, any plans to produce a weapon with such capacities are in doubt. The U.S. and Russia are in talks to renegotiate START, and if previous compromises are any indication, Russia may not have to worry about the development of a space-based target-hitting weapon. (Source)

>> A Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) successfully hit its target in space. Part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, the SM-3 destroyed a short-range ballistic missile. (Source)

 
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is studying a new missile defense system with the capacity to launch the SM-3, an anti-ballistic missile system deployed on the Aegis-equipped destroyer. (Source)

In case of an attack, and the SM-3 (500-kilometer radius) fails to shoot down missiles in the air, PAC-3 (10 kilometer-radius) can serve as a back-up to intercept missiles before they hit the ground. An excerpt:

“[I]n an effort to make better use of SM-3s, the new system being considered would allow missiles to be launched from both the ground and the sea at the initial intercept stage, sources said…The MDA has recently developed technology that would allow a system that combines antiballistic missiles such as SM-3s with various radar networks used in other systems.”