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Last year, sources speculated that countries like Israel and Turkey would be alternative sites for missile defense shields after the Obama administration dropped Bush-era plans to deploy them to Poland and the Czech Republic. Reuters reported that the administration might sell $7.8 billion worth of Patriot “fire units,” missiles, and other weapons to Turkey.

Called “one of the biggest U.S. government-to-government arms sales in years,” the deal would help Turkey, which borders rogue state Iran, defend itself against missile threats. The Washington Post reported this week that the U.S. is “nearing a deal” to set up a radar ground station “probably in Turkey or Bulgaria.”

The U.S. is also working with Israel to help upgrade its missile defense system. The possible radar station in Turkey and the system in Israel would help both countries defend against Iranian attacks. Russia opposes missile defense shields in Europe, claiming they would threaten its national security. Missile defense experts are concerned that the Obama administration compromised U.S. security for Russia’s agreement on START and help containing Iran.

 
In September, sources reported that the U.S. was interested in selling $7.8 billion worth of Patriot fire units, missiles, and other weapons to Turkey. The arms would help Turkey, which borders Iran, defend itself against missile threats. Today’s Global Post reports that Russia and China also seek to sell missile defense systems to Turkey.

Defense contractors Raytheon and Lockheed Martin will bid for the contract. If successful, the sale would be the “largest single Turkish purchase of military equipment to date.” However, Turkey’s military said it won’t pay over $1 billion for a missile defense system.

In light of the IAEA’s censure against Iran and Iran’s threat to build 10 more nuclear sites, the arms sale couldn’t be more timely. “It’s clearly not in Turkey’s interest to see a nuclear Iran; they don’t want to see a nuclear-armed competitor on their border,” said Ian Lesser, a senior transatlantic f’llow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “But they do fear that this can happen. And modernizing Turkey’s air defense system looks pretty important from that perspective.”

According to the source, Turkey denies its defense system sale is related to Iran. Why? Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, “We neither have a perception of threat from any of the neighboring countries, nor have any military- or security-related preparation against them.”

Whatever you say, Mr. Davutoglu. After all, Iran has claimed its nuclear ambitions are “peaceful” and “scientific.”

 
Last week we reported that the Obama administration turned its back on deploying missile defense shields to Poland and the Czech Republic, and it’s speculated that countries like Israel and Turkey will be alternative sites. Reuters reports that the administration may sell $7.8 billion worth of Patriot “fire units,” missiles, and other weapons to Turkey.

Called “one of the biggest U.S. government-to-government arms sales in years,” the deal would help Turkey, which borders rogue state Iran, defend itself against missile threats. The Defense Security Cooperation Agency said, “Turkey is a partner of the United States in ensuring peace and stability in the region. It is vital to the U.S. national interest to assist our North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally in developing and maintaining a strong and ready self-defense capability that will contribute to an acceptable military balance in the area.”

One can make a fairly accurate guess how Turkey’s neighbor, Iran, will react to such a sale.

Reuters also reports on possible sales between the U.S. and Jordan and the U.S. and Morocco. The U.S. would sell $220 million worth of artillery rockets to Jordan and $187 million worth of F-16 fighter-carried weapons to Morocco.

 
Linton F. Brooks, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on U.S. nuclear weapons policy, comments on the challenge we face regarding Iran’s nuclear proliferation. Brooks, who has experience in arms negotiating, says once Iran gains a nuclear weapon, countries like Turkey and Saudi Arabia likely will follow. He calls this challenge bigger than the problem of North Korea. An excerpt of Brooks’s interview:

“Let’s talk about Iran, because that’s the issue that gets the most attention these days. The Iranians keep insisting that they’re only enriching uranium for purposes of peaceful nuclear power development. Yet everybody around the world seems to assume that they’re doing this to have the possibility to develop nuclear weapons. What’s your read on this situation?

“They’re at minimum preserving the option. I have no idea whether they’ve made any firm decisions, but what we know is that they have been in violation of their International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] safeguards. We know that they have been in violation of UN Security Council resolutions calling on them to suspend the enrichment. We believe that there was a military program. We know that enrichment is the long pole of the tent. Every economic analysis shows that it would be far more cost-effective for them to accept, for example, the Russian offer for joint enrichment at Angarsk, in Russia.

“What seems to be going on is a combination of two things. One is national pride. The Iranians are a proud people who are very conscious of the fact that they are part of an ancient civilization. There is an element of national pride. It’s very hard to find an Iranian who doesn’t support their nuclear program in some way or another. But it also appears to many of us that they are at least preserving the option for acquiring nuclear weapons. I certainly believe that, and the Task Force makes the point that they can produce a weapon with highly enriched uranium within a few months.”

>> This weekend the New York Times published a story that highlighted opposing reactions to North Korea’s recent rocket launch. While some considered the launch a failure because the rocket didn’t reach its target, others see the bigger picture: North Korea’s willingness to continue developing and testing its ballistic missile capability.

Missile defense naysayer Philip E. Coyle III said, “The advocates [of missile defense] want to scare people, so they hype the threat.”

Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance president Riki Ellison said, “North Korea has successfully tested a long-range ballistic missile. This success coupled with the North Korean nuclear weapons makes North Korea a nuclear threat.” (NYT)

>> The Missile Defense Agency announced that the Airborne Laser (ABL) prototype aircraft achieved flight certification last week as it returned to Edwards Air Force Base. Called a critical milestone, the ABL integrated aboard a 747 aircraft will provide “speed of light capability” against missiles in the boost phase and other missions. (MDA)

>> RIA Novosti reports that Turkey, a member of NATO, wants to buy S-400 Triumf air defense systems from Russia. An unnamed source implied such a sale would be complicated. NATO and Russia don’t see eye-to-eye on U.S. plans to build missile defense shields in Poland and the Czech Republic.

“We have explained to Turkish officials that S-400 is not just a simple air defense system but an element of strategic missile defenses, which can be placed in one country but protect the airspace over a number of neighboring countries,” he said. (RIA Novosti)

>> Israel has agreed to supply India with missile defense technology in an effort to boost strategic ties between the two countries. Both countries face missile threats from Muslim countries. India will receive Barak ground-to-air missiles from Israel. (ISN)

*** Missile Defense Agency (MDA) Director Lt. Gen. Henry Obering is set to retire, ending his 35-year military career. Among his other accomplishments, Obering helped the National Reconnaissance Office secure an out-of-control spy satellite loaded with 1,000 pounds of toxic fuel. The office was concerned the fuel would kill people when the satellite landed. Using a missile interceptor, the agency shot down the satellite. (Source)

*** To protect itself against “possible missile attack,” Turkey intends to acquire eight missile defense systems, according to Murat Bayar, an undersecretary for Defense Ministry. The first target date is 2010. Turkey is negotiating with China, Israel, Russia, and the U.S. to obtain these systems. (Source)

*** An unarmed Minuteman 3 intercontinental ballistic missile launched successfully earlier this week, according to the U.S. Air Force. Traveling about 4,220 miles over the Pacific, the missile’s targets were close to the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands. (Source)

*** For the first time, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) and Aegis radar systems worked together to destroy a warhead dummy target just below the 60-mile envelope of the earth’s atmosphere off the Hawaiian coast in June. According to MDA spokesman Rick Lehner, “THAAD radar was able to direct and cue the Aegis radar,” which was “very significant for the missile defense infrastructure to be able to pass along radar cues to other platforms like Aegis.” (Source)